So many questions. Are we about to get answers?

Denizens of Capitol Hill are nervously watching the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia this weekend. They will also be watching the mayoral race in New York City.

Democrats, Republicans, Independents, independents, and everyone in between is waiting with bated breath for next Tuesday.

It’s Election Day in Virginia, New Jersey.

So this weekend is a big one. One final, grand push to the finish lines in two states during a time of political upheaval, turmoil, and polarization. It’s a political off-year in every sense of the word. 

President Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot. Except he is. Congressional Democrats and Republicans aren’t on the ballot, either. Except they are.

This is the first major election in which there may be a referendum on Trump’s policies.

Or not.

But political analysts, pundits, and pollsters have questions. And when you have that many questions, everything starts looking like an answer.

Here are a few of the questions politicos hope to answer on Tuesday:

Trump’s Popularity

Up? Down? Sideways?

Is the shutdown hurting Donald Trump’s popularity?

“Turns out, shutdowns are different the second time around when it comes to Donald Trump,” CNN’s chief statistician Harry Enten explained on October 20, 2025.

Enten broke it down:

“Take a look here. You know, we speak about Donald Trump, shutdowns, net approval rating. We’re talking 20 days into it. In 2018–2019, Donald Trump’s net approval rating was already falling. The shutdown was eating into his popular support. It was down three points already at this particular point and would fall considerably more. It was very much on the decline.

You come over to this side of the screen. This shutdown hasn’t eaten into Donald Trump’s support at all. His net approval rating is actually up a point in — in terms of — in terms of his popular support.

So, the bottom line is this. The first shutdown during Trump’s first term, 2018–2019, was hurting Donald Trump. This one is not hurting him at all. There’s no real reason Donald Trump might say, at least when it comes to popular support. I want to get out of this shutdown.”

And if the shutdown hasn’t hurt Trump, peripheral issues like the White House remodel and a crackdown on narcoterrorists isn’t likely to hurt him either.

Have Trump’s Immigration Policies Hurt the Republican Party?

It’s possible.

But there are plenty of other factors at play. Green policies sending electricity prices skyrocketing, crime out-of-control in many major cities, Trump’s peace push in the Middle East.

More Americans are feeling bullish about the economy. According to CNN polling, most don’t think the shutdown or Trump’s tariffs are harming the economy.

Fearing federal intervention, some cities are preemptively cleaning up their streets. Will it be enough to convince concerned citizens that Democrats care about safe streets again?

Or will violent felons who have been arrested and released dozens of times by progressive municipalities continue to commit high-profile crimes like rape and murder?

And then there are the “Signs of the Times” factors. They do not favor Democrats overmuch.

A political analyst voiced the opinion this week that Andrew Cuomo could win the hotly contested NYC Mayoral race against Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani with a strong endorsement from…Donald Trump.

In New York City.

In nearby New Jersey, things are worse for Democrats.

“Wow!!! A just out poll has Jack Ciattarelli essentially beating close to incompetent Mike Sherrill in the race for Governor of New Jersey,” President Donald Trump summed up the situation on social media on September 25, 2025. “Jack is tough on crime and cutting taxes, two things that people really demand today. He will be a GREAT Governor, and Sherrill wants Open Borders (again!), men playing in Women’s Sports, Transgender for everyone, and all of the things that almost DESTROYED America. She is a big supporter of the perhaps future Communist Mayor of New York City! We need Jack in New Jersey!!! President DJT.”

Things have not improved for the Democratic Party contender in the month since. If anything, Mikie Sherrill’s chances appear to have gotten worse. 

“New Jersey Gets a Real Race for Governor,” observed Mene Ukueberuwa for the Wall Street Journal on October 10. “Republican Jack Ciattarelli is closing the gap with Rep. Mikie Sherill by arguing that high taxes and foolish energy policies are ruining the Garden State.”

But even if Sherrill is victorious in two weeks, the fact that Republicans were able to do so well in deep blue New Jersey is astonding.

And although some progressive media outlets are soothing Democratic Party spirits with platitudes about how “Democrats’ Fears About New Jersey Governor’s Race May Be Overblown,” (Ed Kilgore. The New Yorker), those fears persist.

There has been a surge in Republican Party registrations in New Jersey.

In Virginia, the governor’s race has been shaped by the same broad strokes. Of notable exception, violent text messages embarrassed the Democratic Party in Virginia during this cycle. Winsome Sears, the Republican Party candidate, managed to pick up a late-stage endorsement from Donald Trump.

Will it help her in a tight race?

Perhaps.

New Yorkers have the biggest problem. 

Democratic Socialist and would-be Squad firebrand Zohran Mamdani is poised to win the race. Will fear of his policies be enough to push Andrew Cuomo over the finish line?

(Contributing writer, Brooke Bell)